Thousands of Mauritians took to the streets today in protest against the oil spill from a Japanese ship which has devastated their beaches and marine life. The streets of Mahébourg recorded huge turnout yesterday as people chant anti government slogans condemning the handling of the devastating oil spills caused from the 1000-tonne fuel-carrying Japanese Wakashio — which was shipwrecked in the waters off the southeast coast of the island in July consequently putting the nation in a state of environmental emergency.
Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth
A crowd of an estimated 25,000 flag-waving and face-painted demonstrators called for the resignation of Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth and his government. This was the largest major rally that the island has seen in 40 years and the second in a month over the worst environmental crisis in the country’s history. Organisers of the priests claim that the number of participants is double what is being reported in the media.
Many Mauritians demand that officials resolve the ecological disaster accordingly for the sake of future generations in a country whose economy relies heavily on these- now contaminated waters, for ecotourism and fishing. The spill has inflicted untold damage on the Indian Ocean archipelago of 1.3 million people.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
There are renewed fears that the increment in fuel and energy prices might lead to an inflationary spike as many are lamenting the worsening economic situation. Analysts say that this is the beginning of a long night of suffering as the effect of the major hikes in costs of fuel will start impacting on food inflation and service delivery as the Federal Government continues to implement the stringent conditions of its international creditors.
PRESIDENT BUHARI RECEIVES ILO TEAM 0A&B; President Muhammadu Buhari addresses the Director-General of International Labour Organisation, (ILO), Mr Guy Ryder and his team during an audience with the President at the State House Abuja. PHOTO; SUNDAY AGHAEZE. AUGUST 1 2019.
In the absence of a good public transportation system, the masses are going to bear the brunt of the fuel price increment as transporters have already raised the cost of transportation by over 150 percent worsening an already hopeless situation caused by the lockdown occasioned by the Covis-19 pandemic. Moreso, the bad roads and incessant harassment by security agents has made it hard for farm products to be evacuated from the hinterlands into the cities. This has reflected in the food inflation which is already hitting the roof.
According to experts, the decision by the federal government to embark on these stringent measures is not unconnected with its commitment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank over loan facilities secured from the Bretton Wood institutions and other foreign creditors, which appear to be calling the tunes on the economy.
The Executive Board of IMF on April 28 approved Nigeria’s request for emergency financial assistance of $3.4billion under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) which must be fully repaid by 2025, with the Federal Government irreversibly committing itself to full removal of electricity subsidy by 2021, removal of petroleum subsidy as well as the further increase of value-added tax (VAT). Apart from implementing a full market price regime in the electricity and petroleum sector, the Federal Government must also increase taxes as a way of shoring up revenues to offset the short to medium term debts.
The signs of things to come started with the electricity distribution companies affecting more than 100 per cent increase in electricity prices. In some cases, the increase was up to 150 per cent. While most Nigerians were yet to appraise the situation with high electricity costs, the Pipeline Products Marketing Company (PPMC) management issued circular, informing marketers of an increase in the price of petrol to N151 per litre. Fuel stations immediately adjusted their dispensing metres to between N158 and N160 per litre. Incidentally, the incidents happened in a week President Muhammadu Buhari acknowledged that food prices were skyrocketing but blamed so-called middlemen for it.Meanwhile, most businesses have shut down since federal government locked down most parts of the country as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in March and sizeable numbers of workers in banking, entertainment aviation and media industry have been laid off.
In April, Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, announced that government had applied to borrow over $6.9bn from international lenders, including the World Bank, IMF, African Development Bank (AfDB) and Islamic Development Bank to help counteract the impact of COVID-19 on the economy. Since then, the government has taken $3.4bn from the IMF and $288 million from AfDB. While not much has been said about the proposed loan from Islamic Development Bank, the World Bank has refused to process the $2.5bn loan as it insisted that it was not satisfied that Nigeria has the capacity to use it wisely and repay.
The World Bank would seem unconvinced that Nigeria was fully committed to the promises it pledged to IMF by refusing to submit Nigeria’s request to its board for considerations because it alleged that the Federal Government was yet to demonstrate enough commitment to its promises. Moreso, Nigeria would no longer get concessional loans from the global lender because it was already heavily indebted.
It could be recalled that the International Development Association, an arm of the World Bank on July 1, began implementing a new set of lending rules as it unlocks a new round of funding expected to make some $85 billion in loans and grants available. These rules will expectedly set new standards for transparency and require coordination with other multilateral lenders working with the same country. There are speculations that the World Bank may not approve the loan until October when it believes that Nigeria would have fully implemented some reforms including further devaluation of the naira; further increase in pump prices of petrol (a litre is currently sold at an equivalent of over N300 in the Benin Republic and Ghana) and the government is desperate to obtain the loan.
Some commended the government on the piecemeal implementation of the Steve Oronsanye Report by merging Petroleum Products Pricing and Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) with Petroleum Equalisation Fund (PEF) to cut cost and also duplication of roles, however, critics say that the NNPC still remains a behemoth that needs sanitization if government is willing to embark on economic reforms. The Federal Government is currently tied to a deal with Azura-Edo Power to pay at least $30 million monthly whether or not it takes the the power generated by the plant. It is also into another $10 million a month “take or pay” deal with Accugas Limited to supply gas to the Calabar Generation Company limited.
There are also talks about another impending $30 million a month “take or pay” deal with Qua Iboe Power Plant (QIPP), a private generating company currently under construction. Ahmed said, “First and foremost, we will revert to our government’s planned medium-term fiscal consolidation path—which includes increasing revenue to 15 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through further VAT reforms, rise in excises, and removal of tax exemptions— once the crisis passes.
“The recent introduction and implementation of an automatic fuel price formula will ensure fuel subsidies, which we have eliminated, do not re-emerge. “The existing stock of overdrafts held at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will also be securitised. “We will move towards full exchange rate unification and greater exchange rate flexibility, which would help preserve foreign exchange reserves and avoid economic dislocation. “In 2020, the Federal Government will reduce its electricity subsidy to a maximum of N380 billion and remove it completely in 2021. “We do not intend to introduce measures or policies that would exacerbate the current balance of payments difficulties.
“We do not intend to impose new or intensify existing restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, trade restrictions for balance-of-payments purposes or multiple currencies practices, or to enter into bilateral payment agreements which are inconsistent with Article VIII of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement.”
In the first half of 2020, the Federal Government spent close to 90 per cent of its revenue on servicing debts. With mounting debts, it must source additional revenue at all cost to meet the mounting obligations. There are evidence that Nigeria is presently in a worse debt situation than it was when the administration of President Obasanjo cleared the country’s debt with the Paris and London Clubs of creditors. Moreso, economists are of the view that with a low production base that is below the budgeted cap for oil production, coupled with lower crude oil prices, Nigeria is probably going into its worst economic scenario in history.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
The preponderance of Agriculture subsidies and non-tariff barriers especially in advanced economies has been highlighted as a specific hindrance to development in Africa. This was contained in a Communiqué following a meeting convened by the Pan-African Private Sector Trade and Investment Committee (PAFTRAC. The Communique which sets out a road map for WTO reform calls for development to be at the centre of WTO reform; Agriculture subsidies and non-tariff barriers highlighted as a specific hindrance to development.
Following a meeting convened by the Pan-African Private Sector Trade and Investment Committee (PAFTRAC) and hosted by the Afreximbank, a communiqué addressed to members of the WTO and the eight candidates who have been shortlisted as the institution’s next Director General was released yesterday calling for a wide range of reforms.
The communiqué was formulated following numerous consultations with PAFTRAC members, its institutional partners, and through a comprehensive survey of the African private sector. Within it, the Committee have highlighted a number of recommendations to ensure the institution is more effective in growing global trade but doing so in a manner that is fair to all.
The communiqué stated that “ignoring the voice of Africa and other emerging economies will have dramatic consequences for and undermine the relevance of the WTO and the rules-based system at a time when multilateralism is already under threat.”
In the opening remarks at the meeting, the President of the Afreximbank stated that “Africa has played an important but largely under-valued role in the global economy.” He cited that Africa’s global share of trade has fallen from 4.4% in 1970 to 2.5% today, whilst the share of Asia has risen from 7.7% to 20% over that same period. “Whilst this is the result of numerous factors, including fragmented markets and persistent supply-side constraints,” he said, “tariff escalations and stringent standards on final goods in developed economies have limited Africa’s potential to move up value chains.”
The communiqué called for the WTO to ensure “that development issues are front and centre of its reform agenda.” They specifically called for African countries to be afforded Special and Differential Treatment that will allow flexibilities and sufficient policy space to support local industries and advance development. The African private sector also emphasised the importance of addressing subsidises and state-aid in developed economies which continue to confine Africa to the bottom of global value chains.With the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) coming into effect in 2021, they also requested that African integration under the AfCFTA and the establishment of an African Common Market is not undermined by multilateral negotiations.
The organisers called for the voice of the African private sector to be “heard and considered under the multilateral framework,” so that the private sector can not only compete fairly but also grow. Trade, they said, is vital to generate the volume and quality of jobs required to absorb over 17 million young Africans who are entering the labour market every year. PAFTRAC unites African leaders from the private sector and provides a unique advocacy platform bringing together the African private sector and African policymakers to support extra and intra-African trade, investment and pan-African enterprise.
The platform drives pan-African results by providing a framework for private sector engagement in trade and investment issues in Africa, including policy formulation and trade negotiations to support African economies in line with the ambitions of Agenda 2063: “The Africa We Want”. PAFTRAC enhances advocacy and supports policy actions and recommendations of the private sector on trade; and investment issues at the national, trade corridor, regional and multilateral levels.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
South Africa’s tourism regulatory agency, the Tourism Business Council of South Africa (TBCSA) believes the tourism industry can reignite South Africa’s ailing economy, but it has to reopen borders. This follows a 51 percent decline in South Africa’s GDP during Q2. TBCSA revealed that tourism generated R120-billion in foreign exchange from visitor receipts in 2018, adding up to about 8.7 percent of South Africa’s exports, second only to mining.
Tshifhiwa Tshivhengwa, the CEO of TBCSA
“Tourism can be South Africa’s economic lifeline, but only if international borders are opened up soon,” said Tshifhiwa Tshivhengwa, the CEO of TBCSA. “We are appealing to the government to safely open our borders. Our industry is ready; our source markets are waiting to travel, so let’s save jobs and the economy.” He said TBCSA’s Travel Safe-Eat Safe protocols and programme, endorsed by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), has been rolled out widely across the tourism sector to ensure the safe reopening of the industry.
“While tourism stakeholders agree that the reprieve granted by domestic travel will provide a lifeline, it cannot be the industry’s lifeblood sustainably. An opening date is critical if tourism is to reignite South Africa’s economy, not only to ensure that international trade can plan ahead but also so that airlines can retain South Africa on their schedules. If airlines decide to redeploy their aircrafts or reduce their schedules, this will have a direct impact not only on tourism but also trade, “he said. Tshivhengwa said the safe reopening of South Africa’s borders is an essential step for tourism to contribute meaningfully to government’s tax revenues.
“Every day we remain closed to international travel, we lose R336-million of spend and the Government loses vital tax revenue. Opening up our tourism sector will have a direct and immediate positive impact on the government’s coffers at a time when it most needs it,” added Tshivhengwa. Meanwhile, Tourism Minister Mmamoloko Kubayi-Ngubane detailed why South Africa is yet to open international borders at a panel discussion last week.
She said: “Our next step is to work towards the reopening of international travel. We have started to analyse our key global markets and understand more about international travelers who visit the country. “If we do open our borders, we are unsure whether international travellers will visit.” Kubayi-Ngubane emphasised that some destinations may implement a mandatory quarantine period, which could make travelers to South Africa cut their trip short if the borders reopened.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
Inspired by the positive vibes it got during its seed funding project, Ghanaian based Africa Foresight Group (AFG), which has developed a platform offering access to the largest network of freelance management consultants on the continent is launching out to three other markets within the continent after raising US$700,000 in seed funding. Founded in 2016, AFG allows leading companies, investment funds and development partners to hire teams to make the right strategic decisions and achieve sustainable success, utilising an online platform and machine learning to build an entirely new model for consulting in Africa which informs ongoing plans to launch in South Africa, Kenya and Ethiopia simultaneously.
The startup’s proprietary technology platform matches teams with open project opportunities, manages performance data, and supports the invoicing and payments process. It could be recalled that the startup raised a US$700,000 seed round led by Consonance Investment Managers and GFH Holdings, which it will use to expand further across the continent. Already operating in Ghana, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Tanzania and Rwanda, as well as the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK), AFG will focus on expanding operations in South Africa, Kenya and Ethiopia.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
The Moroccan Association of Airline Pilots (AMPL) has announced that 308 of its members are willing to go on strike to protest the planned layoff of 65 of its members. This was in reaction to a statement credited to the management of Morocco’s national air carrier, Royal Air Maroc (RAM) on officially laying off 140 of its employees, including 65 pilots. The Airline justified the layoffs saying it was as a result of the COVID-19 crisis forcing the Airline to minimize its payroll.
Royal Air Maroc
However, the majority of Moroccan pilots believe that the layoffs were unjustified and a reduction in salaries would have been enough. This prompted the Pilot’s association early this week to announce the results of a referendum it organized on how to protest the layoff decision. Out of 469 AMPL members, 308 pilots voted for going on strike if RAM does not positively respond to their demands.
Only 76 pilots voted against going on strike, 78 abstained from voting, and seven cast blank votes. The association is mainly asking for the rehiring of the laid-off pilots. In return, the pilots agreed to reduce their salaries by the same amount that RAM would gain from its layoff plan. The suggestion would reduce RAM’s charges by MAD 400 million ($43 million) over three years, according to AMPL.
The pilots made the suggestion to reduce salaries while RAM was still deliberating with authorities over the layoff plan. However, according to AMPL, the airline refused to launch a dialogue with its employees. “We have repeatedly tried to offer this to RAM, but without success. The [airline] is still refusing any form of consultation and dialogue despite our numerous … requests,” an August 17 letter from AMPL said. The association shared the letter one week before RAM officialized the layoffs. In addition to salary reductions, the pilots offered to give up their wage bonuses. According to RAM’s financial report from 2018, the suspension of bonuses would save the airline MAD 154 million ($16.7 million) for flight crews and MAD 67 million ($7.3 million) for ground staff.
Following the recent referendum, AMPL announced its intention to have a “responsible and peaceful dialogue” with RAM, in view of canceling the layoffs. If the airline refuses dialogue, the association announced it will send a strike notice. Association members will decide on the duration and date of the strike depending on the development of events. In parallel with AMPL’s referendum, some of the laid-off pilots shared their experience with RAM in an online video. The video includes senior and younger pilots, with experience ranging from 10 to 33 years and between 3,000 and 18,000 hours of flight. The pilots expressed their surprise when they received a layoff notification, especially those who spent several decades working at RAM. While AMPL has so far shown exemplary solidarity with the laid-off pilots, it remains to be seen whether RAM will opt for a compromise or will let the situation further escalate.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
The Seme-City startup and innovation hub located on the outskirts of Cotonou, Benin Republic has the ambition of becoming Africa’s problem solving centre where young entrepreneurs and project managers develop their start-up ideas.
Claude Borna, general manager, Seme-City Innovation Hub
According to Claude Borna, general manager of Seme-City Innovation Hub, “we come to find collaborations, we come to find training, to find support precisely to set up a project, to train, to get a diploma, but above all there is a purpose, which is to solve African problems with new methods. With what we have done today we can say we are improving and we will continue to do so together”. Recently, a young entrepreneur benefited from the guidance offered by the centre to develop X-Over, a mobile application that facilitates the tracking of COVID-19 infections.
Equipped with a QR Code scanner to check users before entering a building, the app is being rolled out across the country. “X-Over is a mobile application we developed as part of the crisis management program against Covid-19. It actually allows us to detect the different people who have been in contact with a Covid-infected person. Not only does it allow us to track these contacts, but it also provides users with reliable information about the Covid”, explained Donald Tchaou, X-Over team member.
While the tracing application is not the only program of its kind, developing the app in Benin saves money and strengthens local control over data. Sèmè-City is an economic development programme aimed at making Benin a technological hub for West Africa, based on the model of Kenya in East Africa, or Rwanda for the Great Lakes region.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
The International Labour Organisation warns that, globally, job losses could reach as high as 50% of the workforce. Agriculture, manufacturing and the retail industry have also registered massive losses. Aviation, logistics and tourism have suffered losses worth trillions of dollars. Telecoms giant, Apple, reported catastrophic delays due to major supply disruptions. Hyundai and Nissan have closed down several of their factories. Global stock markets have registered losses exceeding $7tn while the FDI flows have virtually dried up. The banking sector is reeling under the pressures. Global remittances are expected to fall from $554bn in 2019 to $445bn in 2020.
Obadiah Mailafia ,former Deputy Governor Central Bank of Nigeria
The novel coronavirus entails a rising debt burden in both rich and poor countries, as nations borrow heavily to balance their budgets and to provide essential health services. The poorest countries will be most affected, given their fragile economies and financial conditions. According to the Paris-based OECD, an additional 3.6 million more will join the ranks of the hungry while 3.8 million more children will become malnourished and 84 million more will be denied access to essential vaccines and health services. There will also be a decline in global solidarity as donor countries cut back on the ODA by as much as $12bn this year alone, equivalent to the total annual external aid budget of the French Republic.
The IMF predicts an impending global recession that will be worse than that of 2007-2009 that came on the wake of the subprime financial crisis. Nobody can be sure when the pandemic will pan out. Much will depend on finding a vaccine before year’s end.
Economists have laid out four possible global recovery scenarios. The first is a V-shaped scenario. This would be a large dip, followed by a sharp and steep climb up to full recovery. This would be the best possible scenario, all things being equal.
The second recovery is a U-shaped scenario, in which a deep slump is followed by a bottom that gradually builds up, leading to a full recovery.
The third scenario is a W-shaped recovery, which is literally two V’s combined; a sharp fall followed by a sharp rise, followed by a sharp fall and rise again. This scenario will occur if there is a major relapse that is followed by another prolonged generalised lockdown.
The fourth — the worst by far — would be in the form of an L-shaped recovery. Here, the current slump goes on for a protracted period while global supply chains and logistics take much longer to get back on track.
The global pandemic seems to have reinforced the power of the state as the primary actor in international politics. The power to enforce wholesale lockdown of entire nations, including closure of businesses, cultural centres and places of worship is unprecedented. About 84 countries have declared national emergencies while 38 have suspended vital human rights, including press freedom, as a result of the pandemic. For our new authoritarians and latter-day populists, it provides further ammunition in their mounting arsenals against democracy.
Some have likened COVID-19 to World War III, in which China has apparently defeated the United States. Before the pandemic, Washington and Beijing had been entangled in a protracted trade war. The Trump administration had lumbered the Chinese with punitive tariffs for alleged trade dumping. The Chinese retaliated with its own tariffs and trade restrictions. There had also been some sabre-rattling on the South China Sea. When COVID-19 broke out in November 2019, Donald Trump described it as “the Chinese virus”, angering the mandarins in Beijing.
Among our Ndigbo, it is said that when a corpse is being carried across the marketplace, it always looks like firewood. Until the corpse happens to be your own kinsman. The Americans seemingly exhibited some level of schadenfreude at the calamity that befell the Chinese in the winter of last year. There were mutual recriminations on the origins of the virus itself. But no sooner had the contagion spread to North America that the Chinese withdrew to their own shell. They began leveraging their surplus-capital position to frenetically buy up depressed assets and firms in the West.
The ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu famously observed that the best wars are won without firing a shot: “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” China has apparently won World War III without fighting. The global geopolitical pendulum has irrevocably swayed in favour of the Middle Kingdom.
What we may be facing, going forward, is the intensification of rivalry over politico-economic systems. This is unlikely to take the shape of the ideological confrontations of the Cold War. Rather, we may face a new rivalry based on national systems of economic and political organisation and their ideological ramparts, i.e. authoritarianism versus liberalism. The United States will present its liberal political and economic order as the best of all possible worlds. China, on the other hand, will present its own managed economy model and centralised-authoritarian political model as the best of all possible worlds.
The Chinese influence across the emerging world may take the form of increasing mimesis in relation to the Chinese model. The Chinese pride themselves in being successful in building first-rate infrastructure and a world-class economy without liberal democracy. President Xi Jinping has altered the constitution by giving himself the status of president-for-life. There have been no political fallouts because the economy has fared well under his quiet and benign rule. He has dealt mortal blows to powerful political elites that have been convicted of corruption.
We may face a brave new world in which state actors will reinforce their prerogative for economic and political action at the expense of multilateralism. At the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States acrimoniously withdrew from membership of the WHO. The Chinese gladly filled up the space by taking up the tab for almost a billion dollars on behalf of the global health body. We may see similar actions by the US on several other international agencies. This cannot be good news for international cooperation. For all their money and generosity, China is not an open society.
COVID-19 has not only deepened the cracks in the Atlantic Alliance, it is also threatening the foundations of New Europe. The Italians faced their worst nightmares alone, without help from Europe. Most of the Schengen countries closed their borders. The gradual retreat from European multilateralism is likely to lead to a world of greater disequilibrium in the years ahead.
China is gradually repositioning herself as the banker to the world. They are investing more than $2tn for their ambitious New Silk Road project that will link China to central Asia, the Middle East, Eastern and Western Africa, the Mediterranean and Southern Europe. Beijing is carving out a new co-prosperity sphere that will eclipse the US. China is increasingly assuming the status of the provider of critical global public goods. But it is not a champion of a new international liberal order. For over a millennium, they have seen themselves as the Middle Kingdom, the sun around which all the planets are destined to be circling forever. Chinese dominance may lead to the erosion of the international liberal order as we have always known it.
The outcomes of the American presidential election in November may well determine the shape and physiognomy of world politics in the coming years. If Trump wins, we are likely to see a return to American isolationism and retreat from multilateralism. If, on the other hand, Joe Biden wins, we shall witness American re-engagement with the world and re-assertion of its global leadership role.
Much will depend on the ability of a few enlightened leaders who can foster a new global coalition committed to building a brave new international order anchored on peace, security, social justice, solidarity and hope.
Obadiah Mailafia ,former Deputy Governor Central Bank of Nigeria is a fellow of the Society of Project Management and Development Professionals International.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
The history of our planet has been a titanic struggle between viruses and Homo Sapiens. This has been so since the first settled civilisations appeared around Mesopotamia some 5,000 years ago. Archaeologists have found evidence of plagues that devastated entire communities in ancient times. Indeed, the American polymath, Jared Diamond, wrote his Pulitzer-winning book, Germs, Guns and Steel (1997) to explain how diseases, military force and technology have interacted with ecology and geopolitics to reshape the fate and destiny of nations.
Obadiah Mailafia former Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria
There is enough evidence in history to show that disease and plagues do affect the trajectories of nations and civilisations. Around 430 BC, the Greek historian Thucydides recounted the story of a plague that killed more than half the population of his native Athens: “People in good health were all of a sudden attacked by violent heats in the head, and redness and inflammation in the eyes, the inward parts, such as the throat or tongue, becoming bloody and emitting an unnatural and fetid breath”. The two leading powers among the Greek city states were Athens and Sparta. Following the Peloponnesian War as recorded so brilliantly by the historian, Thucydides, the warlike state of Sparta got the upper hand. I am inclined to believe that the plagues that decimated half the population of Athens did contribute to their geopolitical decline as a city-state, paving the way to hegemonic rise of Sparta.
The Antonine Plague that broke out in ancient Rome inflicted a death toll of five million between 165-180 AD. It could have been a factor in weakening the Roman Imperium and ultimately contributing to its eventual demise. The Bubonic Plague inflicted a catastrophic devastation on the Byzantine Empire during the reign of Justinian, around 527-565 AD. The “Black Death” wiped out 60 per cent of the population of Europe during 1346-1353. It also freed the lower orders from a millennial serfdom, leading to the collapse of the British feudal order. These changes helped lay the groundwork for the rise of the modern capitalist economic system as we know it today.
These plagues may also have indirectly contributed to the collapse of Byzantium and to the sacking of the glorious city of Constantinople by the Ottoman Turks in 1453. It would interest you to know that early modern Venice was the pre-eminent commercial center, naval power and the most dominant force in the Mediterranean in the early modern period. The Italian Plague of 1629-31 decimated Venice and brought it down from its apogee. The decline and fall of Venice paved the way for the rise of Northern European states such as England and the Dutch Republic. We have been told that the word “quarantine” derives from the Venetian dialect word for “40 days.”
During the 15th – 16th centuries, native Amerindian populations contracted strange diseases through their contacts with Europeans. The Aztec Empire was destroyed by smallpox, opening the door to European colonization in the Americas. By contrast, many parts of West Africa were closed to European adventurers because the mosquito and malaria.
In the 20th century, the Spanish Flu of 1918 killed 50 million people in Europe, adding to the tens of millions who died during the First World War. These plagues contributed to the weakening of Europe and were a factor in the weakening of the European-dominated international order of that epoch. Many of our people do not know that some 100,000 Nigerians, particularly from the coastal cities of Lagos, Calabar and Port Harcourt also perished from the Spanish Flu.
In our 21st century, there have been outbreaks of viruses such as the Asian Bird Flu, SARS, Ebola, HIV-AIDS, and the novel coronavirus, officially known as Covid-19. Thanks to advances in medicine and the biomedical life-sciences, the effects have not been as bad as they might have been centuries ago. But for poor developing countries, the tolls have been devastating, as exemplified by our recent experience with Ebola in West Africa. Apart from the human costs, fragile economies have been undermined while the reservoir of social capital that holds communities together has been destroyed.
The novel coronavirus which broke out in the Chinese provincial city of Wuhan has turned into a global pandemic of unprecedented proportions. The human toll may have been comparatively modest in numerical terms, but the material impact has been unprecedented. The impact of the generalised economic lockdown across the world, has been a phenomenon never seen in centuries. It is a Black Swan event that could not have been anticipated by the normal laws of probability. Economic historians have drawn parallels with the economic devastation of World War II.
According to the statistics, as we speak, there have been 25.2 million cases worldwide, out of which 847,241 deaths have been registered, while 17.5 million recoveries have taken place. We still have 6.8 million active cases to reckon with across the world.
In terms of country, the top five worst cases are: the USA with six million cases and183,653 deaths; followed by Brazil with 3.7 million cases and 117,756 deaths; India with 3.3 million cases and 60,629 deaths; Russia with 970,865 cases and 16,683 deaths; and South Africa with 615,701 and13,502 deaths.
In terms of number of infections and deaths, Nigeria ranks 50th out of 215 countries and territories, with 53,727 cases and 1,011 deaths. This is no reason for us to beat our chest. We are still within the first quartile of the worst cases globally. More vigilance and more work are needed to stem the tide of this evil whirlwind. So far, I think the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 has done a good job, given the constraints of resources and logistics. But we expect more action and we urge them to do even more so that our country will return to normality.
The global economic impact of the pandemic has been horrendous. The Nigerian economy has been thrown into the jaws of another recession. The collapse of oil prices has deepened the fiscal insolvency of government. There is today a yawning gap in the budget deficit. Millions more have been thrown into destitute poverty.The stylised facts about the global economic consequences are already familiar.
The United States, the world’s leading economy has suffered job losses of close to 47 million. Thousands of businesses have gone under. Trillions of dollars have been wiped off from the stock exchanges.
China, the engine and locomotive of the global economy, has taken a big hit. The Chinese automobile industry has suffered losses exceeding 20 per cent. Exports have been reduced by 17 per cent. The Chinese GDP has fallen by more than 6.8 per cent. Growth in 2020 is forecast to fall to 2.5 per cent.
The EU GDP is forecast to contract by 7.5% during 2020 while the British economy I expected to shrink by 35 per cent by year’s end. India has suffered a staggering 110 million job losses.
To be continued.
Obadiah Mailafia former Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria is a fellow of the Society of Project Management and Development Professionals International.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
Bank loans in Morocco recorded a 5.8% increase in the first seven months of 2020, compared to the same period in 2019. This was the submission of the central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib, which announced the increment recently in a note on monetary statistics.
Loans granted to private companies operating in non-financial sectors recorded the highest increase, with 9.2% between 2019 and 2020. Between July 2018 and 2019, this type of loan recorded an annual increase of 7.7%. Public non-financial institutions also obtained more loans than ever. In the first seven months of 2020, their loans increased by 6% compared to the same period of 2019. Last year, public non-financial establishments’ loans only grew by 2.7% from 2018.
The overall bank loans granted to organizations in Morocco’s private sector rose by 5.8% between July 2019 and 2020. Between 2018 and 2019, the amount increased by 5%. Finally, the bank loans granted to households in Morocco increased by 2.1% by July 2020. The figure is similar to the increase recorded between 2018 and 2019.
The COVID-19 crisis is one of the main factors behind the significant annual increase in bank loans in Morocco. The measures that the country’s Economic Monitoring Committee implemented also encouraged businesses to take loans.
In May, the committee established a loan guarantee plan that the state treasury financed. The system covers all Moroccan companies, both public and private, that sustained negative impacts due to COVID-19. Under the plan, businesses can apply for loans to cover their operational costs with a maximum interest rate of 4%. The repayment of the loans can be spread over a period of seven years, with a grace period of two years.
Figures from late May showed that Morocco’s loan guarantee plan, “Damane Oxygene,” helped 17,600 companies avoid bankruptcy. The bank loans amounted to MAD 9.5 billion ($966 million) and benefited businesses operating all over Morocco.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
