David Malpass - Afrikan Heroes

The World to Record Sharpest Decline in Remittances in Recent History

April 24, 2020

World Bank Group President David Malpass

Global remittances are projected to decline sharply by about 20 percent in 2020 due to the economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic and shutdown. The projected fall, which would be the sharpest decline in recent history, is largely due to a fall in the wages and employment of migrant workers, who tend to be more vulnerable to loss of employment and wages during an economic crisis in a host country. Remittances to low and middle-income countries (LMICs) are projected to fall by 19.7 percent to $445 billion, representing a loss of a crucial financing lifeline for many vulnerable households.

Studies show that remittances alleviate poverty in lower- and middle-income countries, improve nutritional outcomes, are associated with higher spending on education, and reduce child labor in disadvantaged households. A fall in remittances affect families’ ability to spend on these areas as more of their finances will be directed to solve food shortages and immediate livelihoods needs.

“Remittances are a vital source of income for developing countries. The ongoing economic recession caused by COVID-19 is taking a severe toll on the ability to send money home and makes it all the more vital that we shorten the time to recovery for advanced economies,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. “Remittances help families afford food, healthcare, and basic needs. As the World Bank Group implements fast, broad action to support countries, we are working to keep remittance channels open and safeguard the poorest communities’ access to these most basic needs.”

The World Bank is assisting member states in monitoring the flow of remittances through various channels, the costs and convenience of sending money, and regulations to protect financial integrity that affect remittance flows. It is working with the G20 countries and the global community to reduce remittance costs and improve financial inclusion for the poor.

Remittance flows are expected to fall across all World Bank Group regions, most notably in Europe and Central Asia (27.5 percent), followed by Sub-Saharan Africa (23.1 percent), South Asia (22.1 percent), the Middle East and North Africa (19.6 percent), Latin America and the Caribbean (19.3 percent), and East Asia and the Pacific (13 percent). The large decline in remittances flows in 2020 comes after remittances to LMICs reached a record $554 billion in 2019. Even with the decline, remittance flows are expected to become even more important as a source of external financing for LMICs as the fall in foreign direct investment is expected to be larger (more than 35 percent). In 2019, remittance flows to LMICs became larger than FDI, an important milestone for monitoring resource flows to developing countries.

In 2021, the World Bank estimates that remittances to LMICs will recover and rise by 5.6 percent to $470 billion. The outlook for remittance remains as uncertain as the impact of COVID-19 on the outlook for global growth and on the measures to restrain the spread of the disease. In the past, remittances have been counter-cyclical, where workers send more money home in times of crisis and hardship back home. This time, however, the pandemic has affected all countries, creating additional uncertainties.

“Effective social protection systems are crucial to safeguarding the poor and vulnerable during this crisis in both developing countries as well as advanced countries. In host countries, social protection interventions should also support migrant populations,” said Michal Rutkowski, Global Director of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice at the World Bank. The global average cost of sending $200 remains high at 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, only slightly below the previous year. Sub-Saharan Africa continued to have the highest average cost, at about 9 percent, yet intra-regional migrants in Sub-Saharan Africa comprise over two-thirds of all international migration from the region.

“Quick actions that make it easier to send and receive remittances can provide much-needed support to the lives of migrants and their families. These include treating remittance services as essential and making them more accessible to migrants,” said Dilip Ratha, lead author of the Brief and head of KNOMAD.

Pointing out the regional trends of remittance flows, the report found that East Asia and Pacific region grew by 2.6 percent to $147 billion in 2019, about 4.3 percentage points lower than the growth rate in 2018. In 2020, remittance flows are expected to decline by 13 percent. The slowdown is expected to be driven by declining inflows from the United States, the largest source of remittances to the region. Several remittance-dependent countries such as those in the Pacific Islands could see households at risk as remittance incomes decline over this period. A recovery of 7.5 percent growth for the region is anticipated in 2021. Remittance costs: The average cost of sending $200 to the East Asia and Pacific region dropped to 7.13 percent in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the same quarter in 2019. The five lowest cost corridors in the region averaged 2.6 percent while the five highest cost corridors averaged 15.4 percent as of 2019 Q4.

Remittances to countries in Europe and Central Asia remained strong in 2019, growing by about 6 percent to $65 billion in 2019. Ukraine remained the largest recipient of remittances in the region, receiving a record high of nearly $16 billion in 2019. Smaller remittance-dependent economies in the region, such as Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, particularly benefited from rebound of economic activity in Russia. In 2020, remittances are estimated to fall by about 28 percent due to the combined effect of the global coronavirus pandemic and lower oil prices. Remittance costs: The average cost of sending $200 to the ECA region declined modestly to 6.48 percent in the first quarter of 2020 from 6.67 percent a year earlier. The differences in costs across corridors in the region are substantial; the highest costs for sending remittances were from Turkey to Bulgaria, while the lowest costs for sending remittances were from Russia to Azerbaijan.

Remittances flows into Latin America and the Caribbean grew 7.4 percent to $96 billion in 2019. Growth in inflows was uneven across countries in the region. Brazil, Guatemala and Honduras saw a rise in remittances of more than 12 percent in 2019. Colombia, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Panama had an increase of more than 6 percent, while remittances to Bolivia and Paraguay declined by 3.8 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. In 2020, remittance flows to the region is estimated to fall by 19.3 percent. Remittance costs: The average cost of sending $200 to the region was 5.97 percent in the first quarter of 2020. Amid the COVID-19 crisis, the costs of transferring remittances to the region could increase due to operational challenges being faced by remittance service providers closures of agents and offices, access to cash, foreign exchange, security and compliance with AML/CFT regulations.

Remittances to the Middle East and North Africa region are projected to fall by 19.6 percent to $47 billion in 2020, following the 2.6 percent growth seen in 2019. The anticipated decline is attributable to the global slowdown as well as the impact of lower oil prices in GCC countries. Remittances from the euro area would also be impacted by the area’s pre-COVID-19 economic slowdown and the depreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar. In 2021, remittances to the region is expected to recover, albeit at a slow pace of around 1.6 percent due to projected moderate growth in the euro area and weak GCC outflows. Remittance costs: The cost of sending $200 to the region was 7 percent, largely unchanged from the previous year. Costs vary greatly across corridors. The cost of sending money from high-income OECD countries to Lebanon continues to be in the double digits. Sending money from GCC countries to Egypt and Jordan costs from 3 percent to 5 percent in some corridors while the Saudi Arabia to Syria corridor has experienced a dramatic fall in costs as the civil war in Syria has receded.

Remittances to South Asia are projected to decline by 22 percent to $109 billion in 2020, following the growth of 6.1 percent in 2019. The deceleration in remittances to the South Asian region in 2020 is driven by the global economic slowdown due to the coronavirus outbreak as well as oil price declines. The economic slowdown is likely to directly affect remittance outflows from the United States, the United Kingdom, and EU countries to South Asia. Falling oil prices will affect remittance outflows from GCC countries and Malaysia. Remittance costs: South Asia had the lowest average remittance costs of any region, at 4.95 percent. Some of the lowest-cost corridors had costs below the 3 percent SDG target. This is probably due to high volumes, competitive markets, and deployment of technology. But costs are well over 10 percent in the highest-cost corridors due to low volumes, little competition, and regulatory concerns. Banking regulations related to AML/CFT raise the risk profile of remittance service providers and thereby increase costs for some receiving countries such as Afghanistan and sending countries such as Pakistan.

Remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa registered a small decline of 0.5 percent to $48 billion in 2019. Due to the COVID-19 crisis, remittance flows to the region are expected to decline by 23.1 percent to reach $37 billion in 2020, while a recovery of 4 percent is expected in 2021. The anticipated decline can be attributed to a combination of factors driven by the coronavirus outbreak in key destinations where African migrants reside including in the EU area, the United States, the Middle East, and China. These large economies host a large share of Sub-Saharan African migrants and combined, are a source of close to a quarter of total remittances sent to the region. In addition to the pandemic’s impact, many countries in the Eastern Africa region are experiencing a severe outbreak of desert locusts attacking crops and threatening the food supply for people in the region. Remittance costs: Sending $200 remittances to the region cost 8.9 percent on average in the first quarter of 2020, a modest decrease compared with the average cost of 9.25 percent a year before. The most expensive corridors are observed mainly in the Southern African region, with costs as high as 20 percent. At the other end of the spectrum, the less expensive corridors had average costs of less than 3.6 percent.

Kelechi Deca

Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry

World Bank Raises COVID-19 Response to $14 Billion To Sustain Economies, Protect Jobs

March 20, 2020

David Malpass, president of the World Bank Group

Efforts aimed at helping the private sector and workers across some fragile and vulnerable countries of the world withstand the negative effects of the Covid-19 has driven the World Bank Group to raise its intervention to $14 Billion. The additional fund will help to mitigate the financial and economic impact of crisis. The approval by the global lenders Boards of Directors today saw an increased $14 billion package of fast-track financing to assist companies and countries in their efforts to prevent, detect and respond to the rapid spread of COVID-19.

The package will strengthen national systems for public health preparedness, including for disease containment, diagnosis, and treatment, and support the private sector. IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, will increase its COVID-19 related financing availability to $8 billion as part of the $14 billion packages, up from an earlier $6 billion, to support private companies and their employees hurt by the economic downturn caused by the spread of COVID-19.

The bulk of the IFC financing will go to client financial institutions to enable them to continue to offer trade financing, working-capital support and medium-term financing to private companies struggling with disruptions in supply chains. IFC’s response will also help existing clients in economic sectors directly affected by the pandemic–such as tourism and manufacturing—to continue to pay their bills. The package will also benefit sectors involved in responding to the pandemic, including healthcare and related industries, which face increased demand for services, medical equipment and pharmaceuticals.

“It’s essential that we shorten the time to recovery. This package provides urgent support to businesses and their workers to reduce the financial and economic impact of the spread of COVID-19,” said David Malpass, president of the World Bank Group. “The World Bank Group is committed to a fast, flexible response based on the needs of developing countries. Support operations are already underway, and the expanded funding tools approved today will help sustain economies, companies and jobs.”

The additional $2 billion builds on the announcement of the original response package on March 3, which included $6 billion in financing by the World Bank to strengthen health systems and disease surveillance and $6 billion by IFC to help provide a lifeline for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, which are more vulnerable to economic shocks.

“Not only is this pandemic costing lives, but its impact on economies and living standards will likely outlive the health emergency phase. By ensuring our clients sustain their operations during this time, we hope the private sector in the developing world will be better equipped to help economies recover more quickly,” said Philippe Le Houérou, Chief Executive Officer of IFC. “In turn, this will help vulnerable groups to more quickly recover their livelihoods and continue to invest in the future.”

Having mobilized quickly at the time of the 2008 global financial crisis and the Western African Ebola virus epidemic, IFC has a successful track record of implementing response initiatives to address global and regional crises hampering private-sector activity and economic growth in developing countries.

The IFC response has four components among which are $2 billion from the Real Sector Crisis Response Facility, which will support existing clients in the infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture and services industries vulnerable to the pandemic. IFC will offer loans to companies in need, and if necessary, make equity investments. This instrument will also help companies in the healthcare sector that are seeing an increase in demand. The second is another $2 billion from the existing Global Trade Finance Program, which will cover the payment risks of financial institutions so they can provide trade financing to companies that import and export goods. IFC expects this will support small and medium-sized enterprises involved in global supply chains. The third is also a $2 billion from the Working Capital Solutions program, which will provide funding to emerging-market banks to extend credit to help businesses shore up their working capital, the pool of funds that firms use to pay their bills and compensate workers. While the last is a new component initiated at the request of clients and approved on March 17: $2 billion from the Global Trade Liquidity Program, and the Critical Commodities Finance Program, both of which offer risk-sharing support to local banks so they can continue to finance companies in emerging markets.

IFC is already working to deploy its response financing. For example, we recently expanded trade-financing limits for four banks in Vietnam by $294 million so they could continue lending to companies in need, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. IFC will maintain its high standards of accountability while bearing in mind the need to provide support for companies as quickly as possible. IFC management will approve projects based on credit, environmental and social governance and compliance criteria, as applied in past crisis responses.

Kelechi Deca

World Bank Group Raises $12 Billion Immediate Support for COVID-19 Country Response

March 4, 2020

As COVID-19 reaches more than 60 countries, the World Bank Group is making available an initial package of up to $12 billion in immediate support to assist countries coping with the health and economic impacts of the global outbreak. This financing is designed to help member countries take effective action to respond to and, where possible, lessen the tragic impacts posed by the COVID-19 (coronavirus).

Through this new fast track package, the World Bank Group will help developing countries strengthen health systems, including better access to health services to safeguard people from the epidemic, strengthen disease surveillance, bolster public health interventions, and work with the private sector to reduce the impact on economies. The financial package, with financing drawn from across IDA, IBRD and IFC, will be globally coordinated to support country-based responses.

The COVID-19 support package will make available initial crisis resources of up to $12 billion in financing — $8 billion of which is new — on a fast track basis. This comprises up to $2.7 billion new financing from IBRD; $1.3 billion from IDA, complemented by reprioritization of $2 billion of the Bank’s existing portfolio; and $6 billion from IFC, including $2 billion from existing trade facilities. It will also include policy advice and technical assistance drawing on global expertise and country-level knowledge.

“We are working to provide a fast, flexible response based on developing country needs in dealing with the spread of COVID-19,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. “This includes emergency financing, policy advice, and technical assistance, building on the World Bank Group’s existing instruments and expertise to help countries respond to the crisis.”

The financial package will provide grants and low-interest loans from IDA for low income countries and loans from IBRD for middle income countries, using all of the Bank’s operational instruments with processing accelerated on a fast track basis. International Finance Corporation, the World Bank Group’s private sector arm, will provide its clients with the necessary support to continue operating and to sustain jobs.

The World Bank support will cover a range of interventions to strengthen health services and primary health care, bolster disease monitoring and reporting, train front line health workers, encourage community engagement to maintain public trust, and improve access to treatment for the poorest patients. The Bank will also provide policy and technical advice to ensure countries can access global expertise.

IFC will work with commercial bank clients to expand trade finance and working capital lines. IFC will also directly support its corporate clients — with a focus on strategic sectors including medical equipment and pharmaceuticals — to sustain supply chains and limit downside risks. These solutions will leverage the lessons learned from similar events in the past with a goal to minimize the negative economic and social impacts of COVID-19 globally.

Countries face different levels of risk and vulnerability to COVID-19, and will require different levels of support. The Bank Group support will prioritize the poorest countries and those at high risk with low capacity. As the spread of COVID-19 and its impact continues to evolve, the World Bank Group will adapt its approach and resources as needed.

The World Bank Group is actively engaged with international institutions and country authorities to help coordinate the global response.

Kelechi Deca

Africa needs to seize this growth opportunity

January 25, 2020

By David Malpass

Africa is held back by state meddling and vested interests

The just concluded UK-Africa Investment Summit will provide a welcome business-focused forum for leaders to assess the challenges and opportunities for African countries. Throughout the summit, I will stress the importance – and difficulty – of transformational improvements in economic programs. Faster, more sustained and broad-based growth is the only path to creating the jobs and stability needed for the millions of young people reaching working age and is vital to the World Bank’s mission of alleviating poverty and raising living standards.

Investors are eager to have a positive impact on development, while seeking portfolio diversification and sound returns. Building these investments has been difficult, but with effort and leadership, the opportunity exists for many African countries to become competitive. Significant progress has been achieved in Africa over the past decade, thanks to the efforts of a new generation of policymakers and business leaders emerging across the continent.

In countries such as Ethiopia, people are urging their governments to push forward with ambitious reforms. The spread of new technologies and smarter financial regulation, notably in Kenya, has opened opportunities for digital financial services, providing millions more people, including women and small-scale entrepreneurs, with economic opportunities. Low-carbon energy investments, including those supported by the World Bank Group’s International Finance Corporation, can help unleash growth.

Africa’s success stories prove that countries can grow. Foreign investment and international development assistance – notably from the UK – have each played an important role. But much more work needs to be done.

The building blocks for progress are known. Countries need rules of law that encourage competition and are enforced. Sound money, spending discipline, clean water and dependable electricity are all required for progress. Taxes and regulation must be balanced and encourage sustainable growth – with an early focus on more productive, market-based agricultural sectors. Adequate capital is important, and human capital is the most valuable. It can be built through sound health and education systems, a strong focus on outcomes, and legal structures that give all the opportunity to succeed.

Many countries in Africa have a long way to go to create these conditions. Too often, wide-ranging, top-down and unfocused policies and programs leave space for vested interests – both domestic and foreign – to further their own agendas and resist opening markets, making Africa’s business environment less attractive for investment. Policy planners are too often influenced by these vested interests. This has held back development, leaving fragility and conflict for many millions of people.

A key obstacle to foreign investment is that some of Africa’s biggest economies – for example, Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola – have not performed well in recent years. Another challenge is that cross-border trade and investment, which is vital for growth, isn’t making enough progress to lift Africa’s average growth rate. Vested interests are at the core of both challenges.

Four of the areas that need urgent attention: First, reforming state-owned enterprises and de-monopolizing markets for greater competition. For many nations, the government footprint remains excessive, crowding out private-sector activity in agriculture, transport, and energy.

Second, Africa needs to reduce barriers to cross-border trade. Red tape and excessive regulation keep goods, services, ideas, and resources from flowing freely among countries. More intra-regional trade can generate the pressure and resources for improved infrastructure.

Third, government debts and investments need to be more transparent. This will give people more voice in the contracts and commitments made by their governments, a critical basis for implementing the rule of law.

Fourth, the region must address “learning poverty”. Our recent study reported on children’s ability at the age of 10 to read a basic story. In some African countries, as many as 80 per cent can’t do this. UK leaders, including the prime minister, have strongly supported programs to keep girls in school long enough to learn skills and break out of poverty.

As donors and investors, we can all agree that the time for Africa is now. We must not wait for every economic condition to be perfect. Let’s seize the moment and start delivering immediate wins that can rapidly transform economies and improve people’s lives.

David Malpass

President of the World Bank Group

Kelechi Deca