Morocco’s GDP - Afrikan Heroes

HCP Predicts 8.7% Decline in Morocco’s GDP in 3rd Quarter of 2020

October 7, 2020

Morocco’s gross domestic product (GDP) likely declined by 8.7% in the third quarter of 2020, according to new notices from the High Commission for Planning (HCP). Eased containment measures may contribute to the positive change from Q2, when Morocco’s GDP declined by 14.9%.The HCP expects Morocco’s GDP to benefit from a “less penalizing external context” in the third quarter of 2020.

Morocco’s partial lifting of travel restrictions and the gradual improvement in economic activity worldwide is also expected to play a major role in improving Morocco’s GDP and overall economy.
The HCP said the expected decline in Q3 would have been due to a 9% drop in value-added excluding agriculture and a decline of 6.2% in agriculture value-added.The HCP forecasts a 5.2% decline in nonagricultural activities in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Morocco’s Economy Minister Mohamed Benchaabou

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Morocco’s economic activity is expected to experience a -5.5% growth in the next quarter, compared to the +2.3% growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2019. HCP based this prediction on an expected 5.8% decline of agricultural value-added.

According to the HCP, favorable signs of recovery have appeared in advanced countries after a 12.1% drop in growth in the Eurozone and 9.1% in the US in the second quarter of 22020. HCP also forecasts an improvement in industrial activity in advanced countries due to the increase in demand and the reopening of retail business in several countries. “On the energy commodities market, the price of Brent would have stood, on average, at $ 42.7 / barrel in the third quarter of 2020, posting a 31% annual drop,” the HCP said.

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The notice, however, emphasized lingering fears of re-imposed lockdown measures due to a new wave of COVID-19 infections and reinstated travel restrictions in several countries. The fear, according to the HCP, is due to the limited global energy demand in the face of “a bloated supply exacerbated by the resumption of Libyan oil production.” The HCP shared a positive overview regarding the prices of “precious metals,” including gold.

The notice described the improvement of gold prices as a “safe haven in times of economic uncertainty, which would have risen by 30% in annual variation.”

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Prices of other metals, including aluminum, lead, and nickel experienced declines of 3%, 8%, and 9%, respectively.“In this context, inflation would have remained contained in most advanced countries. In the Eurozone, the inflation rate would have reached -0.03% instead of +1% a year earlier,” the HCP said.

The HCP added that international trade would have enjoyed a “little momentum” in the third quarter of 2020.

World trade demand addressed to Morocco will likely improve by 9.3% in Q3 compared to the second quarter thanks to a slight revival of imports from main trading partners. Like many economies, Morocco’s economy suffered from the impacts of COVID-19. The country had to act quickly to limit the spread of the pandemic since March 2, when it recorded its first case.

Since then, Morocco has closed sea, air, and land borders. In June, Morocco started easing the lockdown to revive its economy. Morocco’s Bank Al Maghrib expects a decline of 16.6% in exports in 2020. The central bank expects an increase of 22.4% in the country’s exports in 2021. Morocco’s Economy Minister Mohamed Benchaabou expects a 4.8% economic growth in 2021.

Kelechi Deca

Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry

Morocco’s GDP to Shrink by 2 per cent in 2020

May 13, 2020

As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declares that the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to tank by 3 per cent this year, a distribution of that shows many countries will record negative growths while others will see substantially dropped growths. One of those whose economies will record a drop is Morocco. Reports released today show that the Moroccan economy will decline by 2 percent in 2020 because of the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, but a 4 percent rebound is expected in 2021, according to the latest forecast by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The latest edition of the EBRD Regional Economic Prospects report says that the slowdown will be driven by a sharp decline in tourism, measures to contain the spread of the pandemic, a likely poor harvest, a recession in Europe and lower commodity prices.Growth could be sustained by non-agricultural growth, particularly mining. Morocco is the world’s second-largest producer of phosphate after China.

In the EBRD southern and eastern Mediterranean region, the negative impact of the coronavirus is expected to be seen in the tourism sector, a decline in domestic demand due to containment measures, a fall in demand from the main trading partners and a slowdown in foreign direct investment.On average, the economies of the region are expected to shrink by 0.8 percent in 2020 before rebounding with growth of 4.8 percent in 2021. Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia are expected to contract this year, while Egypt is projected to report a small growth rate of 0.5 percent. Lebanon, which had already fallen into recession in 2018 and 2019, is likely to see an especially sharp fall of 11 percent in 2020. Economies across the EBRD regions may contract on average by 3.5 percent this year, with a rebound of 4.8 percent possible in 2021, the report said, warning that the projections are subject to “unprecedented uncertainty”.

The report assumes a modest impact of the crisis on the long‐term trajectory of economic output, with growth resuming towards the end of the third quarter, but potentially significant longer-term economic, political and social effects. “If social distancing remains in place for much longer than anticipated, the recession may be much deeper, with the 2019 levels of output per capita not attained again for years to come,” the report said.

Across the EBRD regions, containment measures have affected domestic demand and supply. External shocks include a sharp drop in commodity prices, weighing on commodity exporters, disruption to global value chains, a collapse in tourism and a drop in remittances.

Kelechi Deca