The General Treasury of Morocco has reported a notable increase in the budget deficit, up by $626.7 million for the year 2020 from the year prior. At the end of June 2020, the General Treasury of Morocco (TGR) recorded a budget deficit of MAD 28.8 billion ($3 billion) while examining the situation of expenses and resources. This was contained in the data published in TGR’s report on finance statistics in Morocco for the month of June shows a notable increase in the budget deficit of more than MAD 6 billion ($626.7 million) from the year prior.
Statistics from TGR show that the deficit takes into account a “positive balance of MAD 8.3 billion” — or $866.9 million — from the Special Accounts of Treasury (CST) and the Services of the State Managed Autonomously (SIGMA).The TGR report explains that the “execution of the finance law shows a negative ordinary balance” of MAD 805 million ($84 million) against a positive balance of MAD 2.3 billion ($240.2 million) in 2019. The statistics are on the basis of the receipts collected and the expenses issued.
Gross ordinary revenues, however, stood at MAD 125.5 billion ($13.1 billion) against 124.5 billion ($13 billion) at the end of June 2019. The result represents a 0.7% increase.TGR argued that this result is due to the increase in non-tax revenue (66.2%), combined with the reduction in direct taxes (3.1%), customs duties (3.9%), indirect taxes (9.6%), and registration and stamp duties (22.6%) .At the end of June 2020, gross tax revenue reached MAD 102.6 billion ($10.7 billion) against MAD 110.8 billion ($11.57 billion) in June 2019, representing a decrease of 7.4%.
The evolution of tax revenue is due to the 11.7% drop in customs revenue and the 5.7% decrease in household taxation.Morocco’s expenditure commitments, involving those not subject to prior commitment visa, amounted to MAD 315.9 billion ($33 billion) at the end of June 2020.The sum represents an overall commitment rate of 50% against 54% a year earlier.
“The issue rate on commitments was 83% against 79% a year earlier,” TGR reported. Investment expenses issued under Morocco’s general budget stood at MAD 36.3 billion ($3.79 billion) at the end of June 2020 against MAD 32.6 billion ($3.4 billion) in 2019.
The number represents an increase of 11.4%, amounting to MAD 3.72 billion ($388.56 million). This year’s budget deficit might be due to the continuous crisis resulting from COVID-19 in Morocco. The pandemic has notably impacted the country’s economy, urging the government to amend the 2020 Finance Bill to adequately face the recupressions.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
The Great Lockdown which pushed a lot of interactions and work into virtual mode also brought with it the negative consequences of virtual lifestyles especially the rise in cyber related attacks on individuals and organizations across the world. A new report notes that companies around the globe are dealing with increased rates of cyberattacks and that African countries seem to be the major targets. This finding is in tandem with claims by Knowbe4, a security training solutions provider adds that the growth of digital services in Africa’s largely unregulated environment has made the continent an easy target for cyberattacks. The Report, from Sophos Group Plc, a British security software and hardware company, revealed that 86% of Nigerian companies fell prey to cyberattacks within the past year with Nigeria recording the highest percentage of such attacks after India and much higher than in South Africa with 64%.
The survey which made use of data from 65 Nigerian companies that host data on public cloud-based services like Azure, Oracle, AWS, Alibaba cloud, and others show that about 56 out of 65 companies fell prey to various forms of cyberattacks such as malware, ransomware, and data leaks over the past year. According to Sophos’ report, Nigeria had the highest percentage of data leakages worldwide, and ranks in the top five for other forms of attacks: Ransomware, malware, cryptojacking. Sophos’ survey which surveyed fewer companies in Nigeria as against South Africa and India found out that about 57% of Nigerian companies experienced data leaks through exposed data while 47% reported malware attacks and 34% of companies were hit with ransomware. Also, about 46% experienced stolen account credentials and 26% reported cryptojacking.
The surveyed companies according to the Report, got hacked through varying methods. For Nigeria, the major loophole was through a misconfiguration in the company’s server. About 64% of companies were attacked through this means, while 36% was through stolen credentials. This tallies with a 2019 report by Serianu revealed that Africa lost $3.5 billion to cyberattacks. In that report, Nigeria was the hardest hit with losses of $649 million, followed by Kenya with $210 million, and Tanzania with $99 million.
Also global consulting firm, Deloitte, asserts cyberattacks in Nigeria were fewer in 2019, but losses were much higher. A trend the global audit firm expects to continue in 2020. There are also similar reports that hackers now have access to data from some major Nigerian universities, and from our findings, none of them seemed to care. This is despite the existence of the Nigerian Data Protection Regulation (NDPR), that’s meant to make organisations handle data more responsibly.
Cybersecurity has been a pesky puzzle amongst Nigerian companies, and it has largely been treated with secrecy. Most of them hardly report data breaches, and companies rarely share information with each other when they happen. Deloitte highlights the need for Nigerian companies to begin to collaborate more to tackle issues of fraud and cyber threats in 2020, but so far, a few efforts have been made. A few months ago, Voyance, a Nigerian data science startup launched Sigma, a somewhat collaborative platform that could help fintech companies blacklist cybercriminals and share the information.
Sophos’ report reveals that European countries were the least attacked globally, a scenario the firm attributed to the continent’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Interesting strides have been made with Nigeria’s NDPR, but it appears more efforts towards implementation is needed to make Nigeria more resilient to cyberattacks. Also, as companies find ways to ensure that they are NDPR compliant, Microsoft recommends that employees are given sufficient training to make them the first line of defence against cyberattacks. Considering the effects of the pandemic, and the growing digital adoption, this should be taken seriously by both businesses and regulators alike.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), Africa’s foremost multilateral trade finance institution, announces that the global credit ratings agency Moody’s, affirmed the Bank’s long-term credit rating at Baa1, with a stable outlook. The agency determines its rating for supranationals based on three criteria: capital adequacy, liquidity, and funding and strength of member support. Moody’s notes that Afreximbank’s credit profile is “supported by its collateralized trade finance business model, with a short average asset maturity and a relatively well-diversified loan portfolio that allows it to respond flexibly to the coronavirus crisis.”
Professor Benedict Oramah, president, Afriexim Bank
The report adds that “the stable outlook is supported by the Bank’s successful equity-raising performance and its track record of adapting its strategy to challenges in the operating environment of member countries without undermining its asset-quality performance.”
Speaking on the development, Prof. Benedict Oramah, President of Afreximbank, said that “Afreximbank is delighted by the outcome of Moody’s credit review, considering the challenges posed by COVID-19. As well as having a profit-oriented business model, the Bank has a developmental mandate and a responsibility to all its members’ states to intervene in times of emergency. We have acted decisively with the launch of the Pandemic Trade Impact Mitigation Facility (PATIMFA). We look forward to continuing supporting the Bank’s member countries in a prudent and impactful manner.”
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
Often when people speak about the need for infrastructure development in Africa, they are discussing bricks and mortar, improved physical structures such as transportation links, hospitals and schools. But creating a world in which the African continent can truly flourish and provide long term stability and growth for millions of people relies – arguably more heavily – on invisible infrastructure, the hidden strength behind those physical health centres, roads and community hubs.
Carl Manlan, Chief Operating Officer at the Ecobank Foundation
Five years ago, the Ecobank Foundation (EcobankFoundation.org) collaborated with the Charities Aid Foundation (CAF) to design a strategy that would help us become the ‘go-to’ partner in Africa in development of improved access to health and education, along with financial inclusion. It has been a rewarding journey.
With a financial institution as our foundation, we needed to explore how we could best deliver on what was, without doubt, an ambitious goal. We wanted to leverage what we already knew how to do in order to deliver the Foundation’s mission to achieve social change, while also helping to battle life-threatening diseases such as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria.
We have also been guided by CAF’s more recent in-depth research into growing giving in four countries in Africa – Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, and South Africa. With an aim to capturing the size and scope of giving among these countries’ respective emerging middle classes, the reports examined not just individual giving, but also the enabling environment. Recommendations included supporting the development of the invisible infrastructure which supports civil society. Among them was promoting new ways of safe and secure giving to develop the potential for mass engagement and individual giving.
For the Ecobank Foundation, the need for secure giving translated into using the access given by the Ecobank Mobile App to reach potential donors, be they local or part of the African diaspora and help them to give across Africa. It meant engaging with our staff to test dedicated fundraising appeals such as World Malaria Day and was used successfully to fundraise for the victims of Cyclone Idai in March 2019 and other initiatives that build on the giving culture of Ubuntu.
To move towards our goals, our foundation has also focussed on harnessing the talents of Ecobank employees across 33 countries. In addition to our direct financial support of malaria prevention programmes in Mozambique and Nigeria, we are supporting the Global Fund and its local partners to develop technology-led solutions to finance challenges such as cash management and delivering mobile money support. Another example of this is providing mobile banking services to street children in Togo with a local charity acting as custodian in order to safeguard their small pockets of savings.
This is a strong example of what we knew from the outset about successful corporate social responsibility – it will only translate into real-world impact if it is borne out of the local context – you have to have a deep understanding of the problem you are hoping to help solve in order to make best use of your resources.
For Ecobank Foundation, a cornerstone of this approach was the collaboration with the Ecobank Academy, a corporate university which provides training for finance managers working in health programmes that supported large relief organisations such as The Global Fund and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
Drawing on our existing strengths, we were able to create an initiative to bridge the knowledge gap between financial institutions and colleagues working in development on the ground. Leadership and financial management training was also specifically designed for the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Africa (IFRC Africa) to support national societies.
From here, they were able to not only improve their individual governance and reporting standards, demonstrate their professionalism and thereby strengthen their relationships with funders, they were also able to connect with colleagues in similar organisations in other regions in order to share their successes and lessons learned along the way.
Therein lies a crucial piece of that ‘invisible’ knowledge infrastructure that will help to solve the transformation puzzle of development in Africa.
Amid our work in support of those affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, our foundation has not lost sight of the battle against malaria, which continues to inhibit African development. We launched the Zero Malaria Business Leadership Initiative and joined with the RBM Partnership and African Union Commission Zero Malaria Starts With Me campaign so that we can continue to work with like-minded institutions.
Despite the current crisis, we have cause to be hopeful. Both Ecobank Foundation and CAF are committed to working together to help create not only those desperately needed basic systems and services, but also the more complex and detailed and ‘invisible’ civil society infrastructure which, done thoughtfully and with a sense of purpose, provide tangible improvement to the lives of millions.
Carl Manlan is the Chief Operating Officer at the Ecobank Foundation. Michael Mapstone is the Director of External Affairs and Global Engagement at the Charities Aid Foundation (CAF).
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
Making good its promise for more inclusivity within its workforce, global tech firm IBM has appointed first female regional head for Africa, a decision many see as both ambitious and commendable especially with the dearth of female role models for the girl-child in Africa. The appointment of Ms. Angela Kyerematen-Jimoh as Regional Head for North, East and West Africa is historical as this makes her the first woman to hold the position. Ms. Kyerematen-Jimoh who served as the Chief of Staff to the Senior VP of Global Markets and Sales in IBM’s corporate headquarters in New York, prior to this appointment was also the first female Country Director in Africa, leading the company’s operations in Ghana.
Ms. Angela Kyerematen-Jimoh
According to a statement from IBM, “Angela takes up this position with a wealth of experience from 20 years of extensive working in the financial services and technology industries in Africa and Europe. She has worked in various top positions in banking including UBS Investment Bank, ABM AMRO in London and GTBank Ghana.”
Responding to the development, an elated Kyerematen-Jimoh says “I’m humbled to be taking on the role of Regional General Manager IBM North, East & West Africa. Technology is promoting growth in Africa and IBM is committed to supporting the continent with our state of the art technologies so it emerges stronger.”
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
Employment creation and boosting economic growth in the face of the devastation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic is behind a new partnership initiative between Uber and Moove in Nigeria aimed at providing a flexible car ownership scheme for drivers. This according to the company will help provide potential and current Uber drivers in sub-Saharan Africa with long-term access to vehicles. According to Uber, the collaboration aims to lower existing barriers to car ownership on the continent and empower drivers to be their own boss within a shorter time frame.
Moove’s partnership with Uber across sub-Saharan Africa will provide riders with access to newer car models when they request a ride. As part of an ongoing commitment to safety and particularly in the current fight against COVID-19, Moove cars are fitted with transparent and perspex partition screens to separate the driver from rear and passenger seat riders.
Director of Business Development in MEA, Justin Spratt says, “We are passionate about delivering better experiences for drivers and are therefore excited to partner with Moove to develop meaningful, customised solutions for drivers in sub-Saharan Africa. Through this partnership, drivers’ livelihoods will be meaningfully improved while enabling them to get into the driver’s seat when it comes to their own future.”
Speaking on the partnership, Managing Partner of Grace Lake Partners and Co-Founder of Moove, Mr Ladi Delano, said: “The launch of Moove and our sub-Saharan Africa wide partnership with Uber will empower Uber drivers across the continent by providing them with a clear and affordable path to high-quality car ownership.” The partnership with Moove introduces low-barrier entry methods into the Uber app by offering improved pricing models for car ownership through solutions such as flexible rental and drive-to-own options.
The multiple ownership methods are designed to suit drivers with diverse budgets and goals, ultimately reducing the risk of defaulted payments. For instance, the flexi-rental option provides short-term vehicle access, that spans between one to four weeks, while drive-to-own options are available to drivers with 24, 36 and 48 month agreements respectively.
In a bid to improve vehicle standards and safety across Africa, a number of safety enhancements have been made to all Moove vehicles which include improved geofencing and tracking, as well as mandatory monthly car servicing and inspections at the service centre. Critical support to drivers is also provided to ensure that the agreements on financing remain feasible, while Uber offers drivers 24/7 in-app assistance on any issue or query experienced.
According to the International Finance Corporation (IFC), “Inclusive, safe, and affordable transportation is crucial for women. Without inclusive transportation, women are denied their right to move freely in public spaces and are less likely to find good jobs. Women face barriers both as passengers and transportation service providers, ranging from underrepresentation across the sector to widespread safety and security concerns.”
While the transport industry has traditionally been male-dominated, Uber’s partnership with Moove will ensure that 50% of drivers are women, empowering them whilst also providing peace of mind when it comes to safety. All Moove vehicles come with a standard safety tool kit which includes perspex and transparent partition screens between the driver and rider, while hand sanitizers and disinfectant wipes will be provided and a face mask/ covering must be worn at all times when on a trip.
This partnership is imperative for all in the transport industry, whether they are on the Uber platform or not, as with the advanced technology and redesigned entry methods, the opportunity to become an entrepreneur is now more accessible and affordable. It reaffirms Uber’s commitment to West Africa and Africa as a whole, by providing enhanced earning potential and better mobility for all.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
Tonny Tugee writes that the world is eager to do business with Africa but finds it difficult to access African markets because of poor infrastructure.
Without a doubt, Africa is one of the world’s fastest-growing economic hubs. Crucial to this rate of development is the ability to meet the demand for key infrastructure. At the end of last year, a World Bank economic update reported that Kenya has seen its Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector grow at an average of 10.8% annually since 2016, becoming a significant source of economic development and job creation with spillover effects in almost every sector of the economy.
Tonny Tugee, Managing Director at SEACOM East Africa
While this is hugely encouraging news for Kenyans, it also raises questions about the factors which might impact the ongoing positive trajectory of infrastructure development, both in Kenya and the rest of the continent.
Fixed-line networks
In 2019, Kenya invested US$59 million in the Djibouti Africa Regional Express (DARE) submarine fibre-optic cable system, which reached the shores of Mombasa during March this year. The others include SEACOM, East African Marine System (TEAMS), Eastern African Submarine Cable System (EASsy) and Lion2 systems. According to Njoroge Nani Mungai, Chairman of Kenya’s Communications Authority, the investment demonstrates the government’s desire to improve Kenya’s position as a regional IT hub. It is also aimed at guaranteeing both companies and individuals’ access to a faster, more secure, and more reliable Internet connection. Revenues generated by the digital economy should reach US$23,000 billion by 2025, thanks to investments 6.7 times higher than those in other sectors.
In addition, terrestrial fibre networks have continued to expand, offering more connectivity options and better network redundancy – great news for land-locked countries. However, according to MainOne’s CEO, Funke Opeke, these remain underutilised due to high prices and a failure to establish an enabling environment.
Mobile network coverage
Telecommunications has continued to register positive growth, with increased uptake and usage of mobile phone services. High-bandwidth Internet infrastructure has become more widely available, while the rollout of 4G infrastructures by the MNOs has already led to substantial growth in subscriptions to data and Internet services. With the expansion of fibre-optic infrastructure across the country, more homes will be connected to better-quality, higher-speed broadband services, which will be extended to the rural areas.
Consequently, the increase in mobile network coverage has led to a decline in fixed-line networks related to voice calls. Alternative solutions need to be considered to ensure a stable Internet connection throughout Kenya to bridge the rural and urban digital development divide.
Poor infrastructure
The world is eager to do business with Africa but finds it difficult to access African markets because of poor infrastructure. Greater economic activity, enhanced efficiency and increased competitiveness are hampered by inadequate transport, communication, water, and power infrastructure. The World Bank economic update, mentioned earlier, highlighted challenges relating to the inadequate power supply, transport networks and communication systems as crucial to ensuring ongoing connectivity, and continental economic development. It found that the poor state of infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa reduced national economic growth by two percentage points every year and cut business productivity by as much as 40%.
It is estimated that about US$93 billion is needed annually over the next decade to overhaul sub-Saharan African infrastructure (https://bit.ly/3fChBKc). About two-thirds or $60 billion of that is needed for entirely new infrastructure and $30 billion for the maintenance of existing infrastructure. Only about $25 billion annually is being spent on capital expenditure, leaving a substantial shortfall that must be financed.
Economic potential
The economic climate of Kenya will determine access to the tools needed to build the relevant infrastructure. According to André Pottas, Deloitte’s Corporate Finance Advisory Leader for sub-Saharan Africa, this translates into exciting opportunities for global investors who need to look past the traditional Western view of Africa as a homogeneous block and undertake the detailed research required to understand the nuances and unique opportunities of each region and each individual country.
The key to unlocking Kenya
With governments across the continent committing billions of dollars to infrastructure, Africa is at the start of a 20 to 30-year infrastructure development boom. Fortunately, we have access to a global network of exports, which we need to be utilising optimally to ensure a stable infrastructure, both digital and physical.
However, in preparation for the boom, the only way for Africa’s infrastructure backlogs to be cleared and to unlock connectivity and communications in Kenya is through globally competitive, growth-oriented, mobile, and digital technology businesses. It is imperative to establish partnerships with trusted private sector players who already cater to the local and international communications market with reliable connectivity solutions.
Tonny Tugee is the Managing Director at SEACOM East Africa
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
The Kingdom of Morocco has entered into a trade partnership with Greece to create a Greek-Moroccan Chamber of Commerce and Business Development in Athens to enhance the excellent relationship between the two countries, and foster international trade. This forms part of efforts aimed at boosting trade and increasing bilateral economic relations. Supported by companies from the two countries, the Chamber will offer a number of services to businesses, including investment and trade information and a wide-range of relevant contacts. It will serve as a source of reference and resources for Moroccan companies in Greece and Greek companies in Morocco.
Rubina Markopoulou, the Greek-Moroccan Chamber of Entrepreneurial Cooperation founder
Rubina Markopoulou, the Greek-Moroccan Chamber of Entrepreneurial Cooperation founder and chair, will spearhead collaboration efforts, networking opportunities, and relevant meetings to benefit the businesses and stakeholders involved in the two countries’ strategic partnership.
The Moroccan Embassy in Greece announced the creation of the Chamber and the projects’ approval from the Greek General Register of Commerce after more than a year of working toward its formation. The embassy noted that the initiative was carried out despite challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditionally, relations between Morocco and Greece have been positive. Both countries are members of the Francophonie organization and the Union of the Mediteranian.
In mid-January of this year, Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs Nikos Dendias visited Morocco to discuss the countries’ common interests and bilateral cooperations. Dendias described the relationship between Morocco and Greece as “excellent” and expressed its support over strengthening Morocco’s ties with the European Union. Furthermore, the Minister noted Morocco’s critical role in the Middle East and North African region. “Greece recognizes the constructive role of Morocco in the Arab world and in North Africa,” says the ministry.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
Business people across East Africa have decried the frequent resort to shutting down the internet by the Ethiopian authorities as the first step in managing political demonstrations and riots. This strategy according to them is hurting businesses that rely solely on the internet and also other related outfits that depend on the internet services. This came as Ethiopia partially restores internet services after two weeks of shutdown over protests. The government early this week restored internet connectivity two weeks after taking the entire country offline in response to protests and ethnic violence prompted by the murder of a pop singer.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed
Wifi connections returned in the early evening, though mobile data connections were not available and certain social media programmes like Facebook and Instagram were not accessible without use of a virtual private network (VPN). A live tracker produced by NetBlocks, a civil society group that promotes digital rights, showed connectivity approaching half the level recorded before the internet was switched off on June 30. Ethio Telecom is the country’s monopoly telecoms provider.
Hachalu Hundessa, the slain singer, was a hero to many members of Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, the Oromo, especially during years of anti-government protests that swept Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to power in 2018. The musician’s assassination in Addis Ababa on June 29 — which remains unsolved — sparked days of protests and ethnic violence in the capital and the Oromia region which surrounds it. Police officials have provided death tolls ranging from 179 to 239 in recent days, with most fatalities occurring in Oromia. Calm has returned to most of the country despite widespread rumours that protests would pick up again last weekend.
Ethio Telecom, which is state-owned, has a history of shutdowns during periods of unrest and during more innocuous events like national exams, though the latest nationwide shutdown was the first in about a year. Abiy’s government is preparing to issue two new telecoms licences that would break up Ethio Telecom’s monopoly, and officials want to eventually sell a 40-percent stake in Ethio Telecom, a move they hope will make the firm more efficient.
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
Even if one or more vaccines emerge that promise to make people less susceptible to COVID-19, the public-health problem will not be eliminated. But policymakers can avert some foreseeable problems by starting to address key questions about financing and distribution now, argues Richard Haass.
The global toll of the COVID-19 pandemic is enormous: more than a half-million lives lost, hundreds of millions out of work, and trillions of dollars of wealth destroyed. And the disease has by no means run its course; hundreds of thousands more could well die from it.
Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations
Not surprisingly, there is tremendous interest in the development of a vaccine, with more than a hundred efforts under way around the world. Several look promising, and one or more may bear fruit – possibly faster than the several years or longer it normally takes to bring a vaccine online.
But even if one or more vaccines emerge that promise to make people less susceptible to COVID-19, the public-health problem will not be eliminated. As any medical expert will attest, vaccines are not panaceas. They are but one tool in the medical arsenal.
No vaccine can be expected to produce complete or lasting immunity in all who take it. Millions will refuse to get vaccinated. And there is the brute fact that there are nearly eight billion men, women, and children on the planet. Manufacturing eight billion doses (or multiples of that if more than one dose is needed) of one or more vaccines and distributing them around the globe could require years, not months. These are all matters of science, manufacturing, and logistics. They are sure to be difficult. But the politics will be at least as challenging.
For starters, who will pay for any vaccine? Companies will expect to recoup their investment in research and development, along with the costs of production and distribution. That is already tens of billions of dollars (and possibly much more) – before the question of profit is even introduced. There is also the related question of how companies that develop a vaccine will be compensated if they are required to license the patents and know-how to producers elsewhere.
The toughest political question of all, though, is likely to concern access. Who should receive the initial doses of any vaccine? Who determines who is allowed into the queue and in what order? What special advantages accrue to the country where a vaccine is developed? To what extent will wealthier countries crowd out poorer ones? Will countries let geopolitics intrude, sharing the vaccine with friends and allies while forcing vulnerable populations in adversary countries to the back of the line?
At the national level, every government should start to think through how it will distribute those vaccines it produces or receives. One idea would be to administer it first to health-care workers, followed by police, firefighters, the military, teachers, and other essential workers. Governments must also consider what priority to give those at higher risk of developing serious complications from COVID-19, such as the elderly and those with preexisting conditions. Should a vaccine be free to some or all?
At the international level, the questions are even more complex. We need to make sure that production can be scaled rapidly, that rules are in place for availability, and that sufficient funds are pledged so that poorer countries are covered. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, the World Health Organization, several governments, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation have formed the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access (COVAX) Facility. Its creators propose that any effective vaccine that emerges be treated as a global public good, to be distributed equally around the world, regardless of where it was invented or of a country’s ability to pay. The WHO has put forward a global allocation framework that seeks to ensure priority for the most vulnerable populations and health-care workers.
But such approaches may be unrealistic. It is not just that the COVAX effort lacks adequate funding, the participation of the United States and China, and clear authority. It is that all governments are sure to come under enormous pressure to take care of their own citizens first. Vaccine nationalism is almost certain to win out over vaccine multilateralism.
Recent history reinforces this skepticism. COVID-19 emerged in China and quickly became a worldwide problem. Responses, though, have been mostly along national lines. Some countries have fared relatively well, thanks to their existing public health systems and political leadership; with others, it has been just the opposite.
Continuing this national-level approach to a vaccine is a recipe for disaster. Only a handful of countries will be able to produce viable vaccines. The approach must be global. The reasons are not just ethical and humanitarian, but also economic and strategic, as global recovery requires collective improvement.
In Iraq, when military progress outpaced planning for the US-led war’s aftermath, the result was chaos, or “catastrophic success.” We cannot afford an analogous outcome here, with success in the laboratory outpacing planning for what comes next. Governments, companies, and nongovernmental organizations need to come together quickly, be it in the COVAX initiative, under the auspices of the United Nations or the G20, or somewhere else. Global governance comes in all shapes and sizes. What is essential is that it comes. The lives of millions, the economic welfare of billions, and social stability everywhere hang in the balance.
Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-2003).
Kelechi Deca
Kelechi Deca has over two decades of media experience, he has traveled to over 77 countries reporting on multilateral development institutions, international business, trade, travels, culture, and diplomacy. He is also a petrol head with in-depth knowledge of automobiles and the auto industry
